This mixed condition of the fuel price trends awaits actualization, going by which the South African motorcars should be prepared for the October 2025 fuel price announcement. Price-wise, petrol will flex upward ever so slightly while diesel prices will go somewhat down. With the constantly changing oil market conditions and currency, this forecast may well change any time before the announcement comes.
Forewarned as the Forecasts Become
Petrol: Small Increases Likely.Most estimates indicate that petrol (unleaded 93 and 95) will be subject to very minor hikes:
- Petrol 93: +8 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: +16 cents per litre
These estimates arise from an under-recovery in the pricing formula (where cost inputs stand slightly contrary to current price recovery), the opposite direction primarily being supported by increases in international product prices. The stronger rand has cushioned somewhat against the upward pressure, though it may not fully offset it.
Diesel: Expected To Go Lower
At this alteration period for the diesel prices, for the changes will be applied going down on the 0.05% and 0.005% sulfur grades:
- Diesel 0.05 %: 10 cents per litre decrease
- Diesel 0.005 %: 9 cents per litre decrease
The over-recovery for diesel is in a positive sense-that is, diesel prices are, somewhat, above cost inputs now and hence provide room for the reduction in price.
Rationale for These Changes
- Global Oil and Product Costs-Prices of refined petroleum products increase upwardly, and that too more for petrol products, thus thinning-off their margin buffers. The weaker demand and oversupply simultaneously exert downward pressure on the prices of diesel in the international market.
- Rand Vs US Dollar Exchange Rate- Any sensible rand appreciation goes a long way in bringing the local cost down of imported fuel products. In the month of September, this has offered a good degree of relief, which will continue through October. If the currency were ever to weaken late in the month, it would undo quite a lot of the benefit already gained.
- Slate Levy & Recovery Mechanism – The “slate levy,” which is meant to equilibrate past periods of either over- or under-recoveries, currently stands at neutral and thus adds neither to costing nor relief.
- The balance between cost inputs and what the pump price recovers (under vs over recovery) is what dictates these small adjustments.
Effect on South African Motorists
- With petrol price increases, consumers would have an injury. These are moderate price increases, but with time and daily commuters, these changes amount to something to be compensated for.
- If there is more diesel relief, it will be welcome by transporters, logistics, or farmers as it cuts some operation costs.
- Not yet finalized: Due to these, the Department of Mineral Resources & Energy (DMRE) will issue its fuel price adjustment officially towards the end of September, with changes to come near 1 October 2025.
What Drivers Should Do
- In the last week of this month, watch out for an announcement from the DMRE and CEF.
- Expect petrol expenses to be slightly higher next month.
- Diesel will likely be afforded much-needed braking space by its industrial application.
- Avoidting the price hike through fuel efficiency: carpooling, ethereal driving.